The Strait of Hormuz in Flames: Why Oil Prices Are Shaking the World

The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has turned the planet's most critical energy corridor into a combat zone. Jet fuel has already doubled in price — in just six weeks.

$96.25 Brent Crude (per barrel)

+140% Jet fuel rise in 6 weeks

$1,700 Per metric ton (Europe)

21 Confirmed ship attacks

On February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran detonated the crisis, the Strait of Hormuz ceased to be a shipping lane and became a battlefield. Today, tanker traffic through that 21-mile-wide corridor — through which 20% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas once flowed freely — has been reduced to a trickle.

What followed was both predictable and devastating: Brent crude climbed from $66 per barrel before the war to above $96, while WTI futures touched nearly $90. The crisis has been described as the largest disruption to energy supply since the 1970s oil shocks. The impact is not just one of price — it is one of physical availability.

“The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation. Many draw parallels with the 1970s oil shock — and warn a prolonged closure could trigger an even bigger crisis.”

— Oil traders, executives and analysts, Bloomberg

The Persian Gulf is home not only to crude oil reserves but to key refineries that supply aviation fuel across Asia and Europe. The blockade operates as a "double whammy": finished products cannot exit the Gulf, and Asian refineries cannot receive the crude they need to process. According to analysts at Goldman Sachs and Barclays, if the strait remains closed, oil prices could escalate to unprecedented levels — with some scenarios projecting $200 per barrel. A Fragile Ceasefire — and a Market on Edge Iran announced a partial reopening on April 17, allowing passage for vessels from select nations. Crude prices plunged more than 9% on the news. But by April 18, the closure was reimposed after the U.S. refused to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Within hours, markets reversed: Brent surged over 7%, WTI followed, and heating oil futures — a direct proxy for jet fuel — spiked 4% in a single session.

Even if a lasting deal to reopen the strait emerges, analysts warn it could take months for oil shipments to return to normal levels and for fuel prices to come down. Backed-up tanker traffic, risk-averse shipowners, and energy infrastructure damaged by the war are all factors that will delay a return to pre-war conditions. The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires this week — and uncertainty remains the only fuel in abundant supply.